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Next pandemic likely to be caused by flu virus, scientists warn – The Guardian

Influenza is the pathogen most likely to trigger a new pandemic in the near future, according to leading scientists.

An international survey, to be published next weekend, will reveal that 57% of senior disease experts now think that a strain of flu virus will be the cause of the next global outbreak of deadly infectious illness.

The belief that influenza is the world’s greatest pandemic threat is based on long-term research showing it is constantly evolving and mutating, said Cologne University’s Jon Salmanton-García, who carried out the study.

“Each winter influenza appears,” he said. “You could describe these outbreaks as little pandemics. They are more or less controlled because the different strains that cause them are not virulent enough – but that will not necessarily be the case for ever.”

Details of the survey – which involved inputs from a total of 187 senior scientists – will be revealed at European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) congress in Barcelona next weekend.

The next most likely cause of a pandemic, after influenza, is likely to be a virus – dubbed Disease X – that is still unknown to science, according to 21% of the experts who took part in the study. They believe the next pandemic will be caused by an as-yet-to-be-identified micro-organism that will appear out of the blue, just as the Sars-CoV-2 virus, the cause of Covid-19, did, when it started to infect humans in 2019.

Indeed, some scientists still believe Sars-CoV-2 remains a threat, with 15% of the scientists surveyed in the study rating it their most likely cause of a pandemic in the near future.

Other deadly micro-organisms – such as Lassa, Nipah, Ebola and Zika viruses – were rated as serious global threats by only 1% to 2% of respondents. “Influenza remained – by a very large degree, the number one threat in terms of its pandemic potential in the eyes of a large majority of world scientists,” added Salmanton-García.

Last week, the World Health Organization raised fears about the alarming spread of the H5N1 strain of influenza that is causing millions of cases of avian flu across the globe. This outbreak began in 2020 and has led to the deaths or killing of tens of millions of poultry and has also wiped out millions of wild birds.

Most recently, the virus has spread to mammal species, including domestic cattle which are now infected in 12 states in the US, further increasing fears about the risks to humans. The more mammalian species the virus infects, the more opportunities it has to evolve into a strain that is dangerous to humans, Daniel Goldhill, of the Royal Veterinary College in Hatfield, told the journal Nature last week.

The appearance of the H5N1 virus in cattle was a surprise, added virologist Ed Hutchinson, of Glasgow University. “Pigs can get avian flu but until recently cattle did not. They were infected with their own strains of the disease. So the appearance of H5N1 in cows was a shock.

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“It means that the risks of the virus getting into more and more farm animals, and then from farm animals into humans just gets higher and higher. The more the virus spreads, then the chances of it mutating so it can spread into humans goes up and up. Basically, we are rolling the dice with this virus.”

To date, there has been no indication that H5N1 is spreading between humans. But in hundreds of cases where humans have been infected through contact with animals over the past 20 years, the impact has been grim. “The mortality rate is extraordinarily high because humans have no natural immunity to the virus”, said Jeremy Farrar, chief scientist of the World Health Organization.

The prospect of a flu pandemic is alarming, although scientists also point out that vaccines against many strains, including H5N1, have already been developed. “If there was an avian flu pandemic it would still be a massive logistical challenge to produce vaccines at the scale and speed that will be needed. However, we would be much further down that road than we were with Covid-19 when a vaccine had to be developed from scratch,” said Hutchinson.

Nevertheless, some lessons of preventing disease spread have been forgotten since the end of the Covid pandemic, said Salmanton-García. “People have gone back to coughing into their hands and then shaking hands with other people. Mask-wearing has disappeared. We are going back to our old bad habits. We may come to regret that.”

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SpaceX completes bicoastal launches, adding to Starlink’s megaconstellation – UPI News

May 3 (UPI) — SpaceX launched another group of 23 satellites from Kennedy Space Center on Thursday night via a Falcon 9 rocket, adding to the Starlink megacluster of Internet satellites now in low-Earth orbit.

The launches have become nearly routine as have the return of reusable fuel cell booster rocket to a drone awaiting below.

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Thursday night, the booster, guided by short rocket bursts, returned from its mission after spending a million pounds of kerosene fuel in about 8 minutes, deployed triangular legs and settled gently on the drone ship called A Shortfall of Gravitas.

It was this booster’s 19th mission, according to SpaceX. The 19th reusable mission for the booster is just one shy of the company’s reuse record, which was set last month.

Starlink, SpaceX’s broadband company, currently has more than 5,800 active satellites in low-Earth orbit, making up the Internet satellite constellation.

The Florida launch was the second half of a SpaceX double header Thursday. On the other side of the country, a Falcon 9 carried a pair of two Earth-observation satellites for a company called Maxar from California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base.

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SpaceX has launched 43 orbital missions so far this year. 29 of those missions have been devoted to building out the Starlink megaconstellation.

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Research shows bumblebee nests are overheating due to climate change, threatening future populations – Phys.org

bumblebee
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

As a result of the climate crisis, global warming is driving up temperatures around the world—and bumblebees, like humans, are struggling to cope with homes that can’t beat the heat.

In a new article published in Frontiers in Bee Science, scientists identify rising heat as a potential culprit for the decline in bumblebee populations worldwide, compromising ‘ ability to construct livable nests in which healthy larvae can develop.

“The decline in populations and ranges of several of bumblebees may be explained by issues of overheating of the nests and the brood,” said Dr. Peter Kevan of the University of Guelph, Canada, lead author of the article.

“The constraints on the survival of the bumblebee brood indicate that heat is likely a major factor, with heating of the nest above about 35 degrees Celsius being lethal, despite the remarkable capacity of bumblebees to thermoregulate.”

There are many bumblebee species around the world, living in many different environments. Lots of these species are in a decline linked to , but identifying a causative factor has proven difficult.

However, by reviewing the literature, Kevan and colleagues identified a critical commonality between these species, regardless of geographic range: the optimal temperature of their nests, 28–32 degrees Celsius.

“We can assume that the similarity reflects the evolutionary relatedness of the various species,” said Kevan.

Because this characteristic appears to be common between so many species, it may have limited evolutionary plasticity, meaning the bumblebees would find it hard to adapt to rising temperatures, and would struggle to remain within their thermal neutral zone—a point at which staying the right temperature requires minimal metabolic expenditure. Heat stress that takes a species out of this range is dangerous.

“Excessively high temperatures are more harmful to most animals and plants than cool temperatures. When conditions are cool, organisms that do not metabolically regulate their body temperatures simply slow down, but when temperatures get too high metabolic processes start to break down and cease,” said Kevan. “Death ensues quickly.”

Reviewing 180 years of literature, Kevan and colleagues found that bumblebees seem to be able to survive at up to 36 degrees Celsius and develop optimally at around 30–32 degrees Celsius—though this might differ between species and biogeographical conditions. While bumblebees have some behavioral adaptations that allow them to thermoregulate, this may not be enough to deal with climate change.

Additionally, the bumblebee also acts as a “superorganism,” where reproductive fitness is dependent on the collective survival and reproduction of the colony rather than individual bees.

One bumblebee may cope better with the heat than another, but if the nest is too hot to raise healthy larvae the whole colony suffers, regardless of individual bumblebees’ adaptation.

On a wing and a prayer

“The effect of high nest temperatures has not been studied very much, which is surprising,” said Kevan. “We can surmise that nest temperatures above the mid-30s Celsius would likely be highly detrimental and that above about 35 Celsius death would occur, probably quite quickly.”

Studies of honeybees show that higher nest temperatures compromise bee queens’ strength and reproductive ability, and lead to smaller worker bees in poorer condition. If heat has a similar effect on bumblebees, so that colonies produce less healthy offspring at a higher temperature, then could be directly leading to their decline.

To ensure that bumblebees continue to thrive, the scientists call for more research into what they say is an understudied aspect of bumblebee ecology: nest morphology, material properties, , and thermoregulation. It may be possible for some bumblebee colonies to adapt their site choice and form or behavior to cool their nests.

Ground-penetrating radar could help study ground-nesting species, while flow-through respirometry analysis of nests at different temperatures might help scientists gauge the stress placed on the bee colonies inside. We need both to understand how different colonies cope with the same conditions and how different species cope with different conditions, including whether some bumblebee species have broader thermal neutral zones, affording them more resilience.

“We hope that future scientists may take the ideas we present and apply them to their own research on bumblebee health and conversation,” concluded Kevan.

More information:
Thermodynamics, thermal performance and climate change: Temperature regimes for bumblebee (Bombus spp.) colonies as examples of superorganisms, Frontiers in Bee Science (2024). DOI: 10.3389/frbee.2024.1351616

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Citation:
Research shows bumblebee nests are overheating due to climate change, threatening future populations (2024, May 3)
retrieved 3 May 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-05-bumblebee-overheating-due-climate-threatening.html

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Update: China to launch Chang’e-6 lunar probe on Friday afternoon – Xinhua

This photo taken on April 27, 2024 shows the combination of the Chang’e-6 lunar probe and the Long March-5 Y8 carrier rocket having been transferred vertically to the launching area at the Wenchang Space Launch Center in south China’s Hainan Province. (Photo by Huang Guochang/Xinhua)

WENCHANG, Hainan, May 3 (Xinhua) — The Chang’e-6 lunar probe is scheduled to be launched between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. (Beijing Time) on Friday, with the preferred launch window targeted at 5:27 p.m., the China National Space Administration (CNSA) said.

The Chang’e-6 mission is tasked with collecting and then returning samples from the moon’s mysterious far side to Earth — the first endeavor of its kind in the history of human lunar exploration.

The Long March-5 Y8 rocket, which will carry the Chang’e-6 probe, has begun the process of taking on liquid oxygen cryogenic propellant at the Wenchang Space Launch Site on the coast of China’s southern island province of Hainan, the CNSA added. This propellant will serve as fuel for the carrier rocket.

The Chang’e-6 spacecraft comprises an orbiter, a lander, an ascender and a returner.

The mission will carry four payloads developed through international cooperation. Scientific instruments from France, Italy and the European Space Agency are aboard the Chang’e-6 lander, while a small satellite from Pakistan is aboard the orbiter.

About 50 guests from 12 countries and international organizations have been invited by the CNSA to attend a workshop focusing on the international payloads carried by Chang’e-6 and witness the launch in Hainan.

An impact crater known as the Apollo basin, located within the South Pole-Aitken Basin on the far side of the moon, has been chosen as the primary target landing and sampling site for the Chang’e-6 mission.

After the spacecraft reaches the moon, it will make a soft landing. Within 48 hours after landing, a robotic arm will be extended to scoop rocks and soil from the lunar surface, while a drill will be used to bore into the ground. Scientific detection work will be carried out simultaneously.

After the samples are sealed in a container, the ascender will take off from the moon and dock with the orbiter in lunar orbit. The returner will then carry the samples back to Earth, landing in Siziwang Banner in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The entire mission is expected to last about 53 days, the CNSA said. 

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