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Worst-Case Global Warming Scenario Unlikely, According to Ice Age Data – Technology Networks

As carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere, the Earth will get hotter. But exactly how much warming will result from a certain increase in CO2 is under study. The relationship between CO2 and warming, known as climate sensitivity, determines what future we should expect as CO2 levels continue to climb.

New research led by the University of Washington analyzes the most recent ice age, when a large swath of North America was covered in ice, to better understand the relationship between CO2 and global temperature. It finds that while most future warming estimates remain unchanged, the absolute worst-case scenario is unlikely.

The open-access study was published April 17 in Science Advances.

“The main contribution from our study is narrowing the estimate of climate sensitivity, improving our ability to make future warming projections,” said lead author Vince Cooper, a UW doctoral student in atmospheric sciences. “By looking at how much colder Earth was in the ancient past with lower levels of greenhouse gases, we can estimate how much warmer the current climate will get with higher levels of greenhouse gases.”

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The new paper doesn’t change the best-case warming scenario from doubling CO2 — about 2 degrees Celsius average temperature increase worldwide — or the most likely estimate, which is about 3 degrees Celsius. But it reduces the worst-case scenario for doubling of CO2 by a full degree, from 5 degrees Celsius to 4 degrees Celsius. (For reference, CO2 is currently at 425 ppm, or about 1.5 times preindustrial levels, and unless emissions drop is headed toward double preindustrial levels before the end of this century.)

As our planet heads toward a doubling of CO2, the authors caution that the recent decades are not a good predictor of the future under global warming. Shorter-term climate cycles and atmospheric pollution’s effects are just some reasons that recent trends can’t reliably predict the rest of this century.

“The spatial pattern of global warming in the most recent 40 years doesn’t look like the long-term pattern we expect in the future — the recent past is a bad analog for future global warming,” said senior author Kyle Armour, a UW associate professor of atmospheric sciences and of oceanography.

Instead, the new study focused on a period 21,000 years ago, known as the Last Glacial Maximum, when Earth was on average 6 degrees Celsius cooler than today. Ice core records show that atmospheric CO2 then was less than half of today’s levels, at about 190 parts per million.

“The paleoclimate record includes long periods that were on average much warmer or colder than the current climate, and we know that there were big climate forcings from ice sheets and greenhouse gases during those periods,” Cooper said. “If we know roughly what the past temperature changes were and what caused them, then we know what to expect in the future.”

Researchers including co-author Gregory Hakim, a UW professor of atmospheric sciences, have created new statistical modeling techniques that allow paleoclimate records to be assimilated into computer models of Earth’s climate, similar to today’s weather forecasting models. The result is more realistic temperature maps from previous millennia.

For the new study the authors combined prehistoric climate records — including ocean sediments, ice cores, and preserved pollen — with computer models of Earth’s climate to simulate the weather of the Last Glacial Maximum. When much of North America was covered with ice, the ice sheet didn’t just cool the planet by reflecting summer sunlight off the continents, as previous studies had considered.

By altering wind patterns and ocean currents, the ice sheet also caused the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans to become especially cold and cloudy. Analysis in the new study shows that these cloud changes over the oceans compounded the glacier’s global cooling effects by reflecting even more sunlight.

In short, the study shows that CO2 played a smaller role in setting ice age temperatures than previously estimated. The flipside is that the most dire predictions for warming from rising CO2 are less likely over coming decades.

“This paper allows us to produce more confident predictions because it really brings down the upper end of future warming, and says that the most extreme scenario is less likely,” Armour said. “It doesn’t really change the lower end, or the average estimate, which remain consistent with all the other lines of evidence.”

Reference: Cooper VT, Armour KC, Hakim GJ, et al. Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates. Sci Adv. 2024;10(16):eadk9461. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adk9461

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Breaking news. – The Herald

Precious Manomano Herald Reporter

Government has intensified the fight against livestock mortality by constructing water troughs at the village business units, hay baling, and drought mitigation awareness campaigns.

It has also embarked on a nationwide borehole drilling exercise to save the lives of both livestock and people.

The Government is also upscaling hay baling programmes, where five million hay bales are expected to be produced this season and water is also distributed in areas where livestock is most vulnerable.

To date, private players and the Government have so far produced 1 223 674 hay bales and last season a total of 4 803 133 hay bales were produced.

The Agriculture and Rural Development Advisory Service (ARDAS)indicates that the Government is constructing troughs at borehole sites adding that it is currently mobilising water bowsers for strategic areas.

“Drought mitigation awareness campaigns are underway. This involves the use of pamphlets, use of electronic and print media.

“Drilling of boreholes is underway and piping of water from dams to strategic areas is recommended.

“Modalities for expediting the procurement process of the requirements for hay baling are underway. In the previous hay bailing of 2023, a total of 4,8 million were produced and these need to be mobilised as a strategic supplementary feeding,” said the department.

Farmers are encouraged to destock. This involves reducing the number of animal stock during the drought. Non-productive stock is selected, finished off, and sold, and the returns can be used to purchase feed to save the productive herd.

Destocking reduces the demand for fodder & grazing.

Disposal and removal of diseased animals will reduce the potential for environmental and health challenges.

Destocking also helps create links with traders in remote areas, where they may not naturally have reached.

Financing of traders to support destocking is also important and facilitation of increased offtake through removal of trade and marketing barriers.

Livestock vaccinations are also recommended this period to mitigate the spread of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) during movement of livestock from FMD zones into national parks.

Grazing of livestock too close to the ground and indiscriminate feeding patterns common during drought periods will expose them to diseases such as Anthrax, Blackleg, Botulism, and Hardware disease.

Increased activity at the human-livestock-wildlife interface will likely result in rabies virus spill-over to humans and domestic animals hence the need to vaccinate against these diseases

Farmers are encouraged to implement management practices such as providing ample shade and access to cool water, and adjusting feeding schedules can help minimise the impact of heat on cattle health and welfare.

They are also encouraged to establish dedicated fodder plots and provide cattle with adequate water.

Farmers are urged to downscale some livestock and procure feed adding that there is a need to practice good husbandry practises.

Acting chief director at the Veterinary Services Department Dr Pious Makaya said livestock condition is not bad adding that borehole drilling and hay bailing are critical components that need to be scaled up this period.

“Grazing is limited in winter due to the effects of climate change so various strategies were put in place by the Government to ensure that our livestock do not suffer from drought,” he said.

Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union (ZCFU) president Dr Shadreck Makombe said farmers should consider the long-term sustainability of the pasture and not exceed its carrying capacity.

There is a need to reduce the stocking rate by either selling less productive animals or moving them to alternative grazing areas.

The situation will reduce pressure on the pasture and ensure that there is enough forage for the remaining animals, he said.

Recently, Livestock Farmers Union chairman Sifiso Sibanda said farmers may need to safeguard their livestock this coming season by adjusting herd sizes and stocking rates to prevent overgrazing and reduce the risk of livestock losses due to feed shortages.

Government was concerned with the level of performance of the livestock sector and it promulgated a blueprint to address all areas that were limiting growth

Entertainment news

Ministry partners RBZ in currency awareness – The Herald

Ministry partners RBZ in currency awareness

Farirai Machivenyika Senior Reporter

The Ministry of Information, Publicity, and Broadcasting Services has come up with a communication plan to aid the Reserve Bank in raising awareness of the new gold-backed ZiG currency introduced last month.

While the ZiG existed from the second week of last month in bank accounts and electronic transfers, notes and coins of the ZiG were released to the market on Tuesday, bringing relief to the transacting public who were facing difficulties in accessing small change.

In a statement yesterday Permanent Secretary for Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Mr Nick Mangwana said the Ministry was using communication channels, such as radio, television, newspapers, and social media, to educate the public about the advantages of using gold as a currency, such as its stability and value retention.

“To achieve this mandate, the ministry is using its spread of district information officers and provincial information officers to reach the citizens in rural and urban areas.

“In addition to the Ministry’s information ecosystem, it is also working with key stakeholders, such as financial institutions and businesses, to encourage the adoption of gold as a means of exchange.

“Additionally, the ministry will be coordinating events, such as workshops and conferences, to engage with the public and address any concerns or misconceptions about using gold as a currency.

“By effectively communicating the benefits and possibilities of using gold as a currency, the Ministry of Information, Publicity, and Broadcasting Services will help generate support and momentum for the gold currency publicity campaign in Zimbabwe,” he said.

Mr Mangwana said the communication plan sought to ensure that the purpose, benefits, and features of the new currency were clearly understood by the target audience.

The communication plan was helping the team to undertake five key issues: creating awareness, providing information, addressing concerns, building trust and encouraging adoption.

“The communication plan will be instrumental in creating awareness among the citizens about the introduction of the ZiG. Through various communication channels such as media, social media, and public events, the plan will ensure that the citizens are informed about the new currency and its benefits.

“The communication plan is providing detailed information about the Zimbabwe Gold currency, including how it works, its value, and how citizens can exchange their existing currency for the new currency. This will help to dispel any confusion or misinformation surrounding the new currency.

“The communication plan is addressing any concerns or questions that citizens may have about the introduction of the Zimbabwe Gold currency. By providing clear and accurate information, the plan will help to alleviate any doubts or fears that the citizens may have,” he said.

“Effective communication is crucial in building trust between the Government and the citizens. The communication plan ensures transparency and openness in the communication process, which helps to build trust and confidence in the new currency.

“The communication plan is aiming to encourage citizens to adopt the Zimbabwe Gold Currency and use it in their daily transactions. By highlighting the benefits of the new currency, such as stability and security, the plan will incentivise citizens to embrace the new currency.”

Entertainment news

‘Zaoga’s ICT vision impressive’ – The Herald

‘Zaoga’s ICT vision impressive’

Farirai Machivenyika Senior Reporter

The late national hero and leader of the Zimbabwe Assemblies of God Africa (ZAOGA), Archbishop Professor Ezekiel Guti, was a visionary leader who valued the empowerment of children through education, Information and Communication Technologies, Postal and Courier Services Deputy Minister, Dingimuzi Phuti said this week.

Speaking on Tuesday at the Ezekiel Guti Christian Primary School in Riverside, Chitungwiza, after touring the school as part of preparations for the Ezekiel Guti Day to be commemorated on Saturday, he said: “I am humbled by the vision of our departed hero, Baba Guti, the vision that put the concerns of a human being to reality, the vision that foresaw things that we are beginning to discover today, the importance of taking a child to school, the knowledge that it doesn’t have to be the responsibility of Government alone.

“It’s the responsibility that is more entangled with care and understanding the reason to empower somebody through education that drove him. But apart from that we are really touched by the ahead of time kind of man he was,” he said.

Deputy Minister Phuti said the programme was meant to celebrate the life of an illustrious son of Zimbabwe whose visionary leadership was noticeable not only in Zimbabwe alone but impacted lives around the world.

The ministry has partnered the Ezekiel Guti Primary School to train youths in the use of ICT.

“In honour of the legacy of Baba Guti we decided that we come in with our digital relevance hence that training we have organised in partnership with your administration.

“We hope that the training will not only open up the eyes of our youngsters but will motivate them to pursue other relevant skills from this,” he said.

Archbishop Guti’s widow, Apostle Eunor Guti expressed her gratitude to the Ministry for the partnership.

“I would like to thank the Ministry of ICT for partnering with us and joining the Zaoga family as we celebrate the life and legacy of our father, Professor Guti,” she said.

Apart from schools the Archbishop Professor Guti also established the Zimbabwe Ezekiel Guti University in Bindura.